OPINION: Ihor SMESHKO. Budapest Memorandum Revisited: A Manifesto (Kyiv Post, May 10, 2025)

After 11 years of war, Ukraine, the victim, is increasingly pressured to make numerous concessions to Putin’s Russia, the predatory violator of the Budapest Memorandum.

In the Manifesto below, Col. Gen. Ihor Smeshko calls on the international community, and especially the signatory parties of the Memorandum, to open their minds and hearts to the unparalleled contributions Ukraine has made to global security, and urges support in restoring its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The measure of a state’s greatness

Winston Churchill once said, “The price of greatness is responsibility.” And living up to one’s responsibilities is recognized as a matter of highest honor.

As an independent state, Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated its deep commitment to the principles of international security, strategic stability, and nuclear disarmament. In light of the challenges faced by the world in the 21st century, Ukraine considers it necessary to remind its international partners, particularly the United States, of its unique and unprecedented contribution to America’s and global security.

In its simplest form, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 obligated Ukraine to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for US, United Kingdom, and Russian “assurances” and “guarantees” of its security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Ukraine’s commitments were voluntarily assumed and fully implemented. But those of the other signatories were shrugged off. Russia’s brutal violation and unprovoked war against Ukraine in Crimea and Donbas was met with little more than mild sanctions, while the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine was banned. President Trump, to his credit, lifted that ban.

The consequences of the breach of a morally and legally binding international treaty have not only fallen heavily on Ukraine during the 11 years of war but also on the US and Europe in rapidly rising defense costs, and the weakening of the global system of international law that ensured 70 years of peace in Europe. Failure to comply with the Budapest Memorandum has resulted in the increasing irrelevance and destruction of the legitimacy of such systemic international treaties as the Charter of 1945, the Helsinki Final Act on International Security of 1975, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969, and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1968. By way of explanation:

• As regards the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969, failure to comply with a treaty because a party to it deems it to be non-binding would upend the global system of law that is the foundation of world order.
• As regards the 1975 Helsinki Accords, failure to return Ukraine to its legally recognized borders is tantamount to recognizing the Helsinki Accords as a house-of-cards that can now be destroyed by any country against its neighbor, if it has the power to do so.
• As regards the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, if the Budapest Memorandum is not honored, Ukraine has the right to withdraw from this treaty, greatly discouraging other nations from seeking accession to it.

The fate of Ukraine, Europe, and the world depends on implementing the Memorandum. Unconditional implementation is necessary.

Ukraine has met all its obligations… and then some!

Nuclear disarmament of Ukraine (1994-2000):

Without Ukraine’s unprecedented and voluntary relinquishment of the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, the United States would have remained vulnerable for decades to near-total destruction. Sacrificing its own security, Ukraine destroyed 176 intercontinental missiles, more than 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads, and dozens of Tu-160 and Tu-95 heavy strategic carrier bombers. It saved the US taxpayer hundreds of billions of dollars that the US would have had to spend on its defense.

Deterring Russian aggression (after 2014):

Having engaged the enemy in seven years of bloody trench warfare, followed by Putin’s large-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine was the only force shielding Europe and deterring further Russian incursions into Europe. It did so as an ally of the West in defense of Europe and itself against a resurgent nuclear-imperial dictatorship. Not a single American soldier was lost in this war.

Ukraine has rendered an unprecedented service to the world in strengthening global security. In addition, it has eliminated from the US the threat of destruction by the world’s third-largest arsenal of strategic nuclear weapons. For US taxpayers, the cost of this service has been valued at trillions of dollars.

Can the US, the UK, and NATO claim as much?

President Zelensky and the vast majority of Ukrainians have immense gratitude for all the support provided to Ukraine during its hours of darkness. But that, in no way, excuses the US, UK, and Russia from responsibility in meeting their obligations under the Budapest Memorandum. Thousands of Ukrainians likely died because of delays in providing the weapons in the time, type, and quantity needed, starting with Obama in 2014. They simply violated their commitments and, thereby, encouraged Putin to continue his assault.

Restitution, compensation, and international law and practice

In private and international practice, compensation and restitution are the remedies available when one or another party fails to comply with the terms of their agreement. As in the US and British common law, “each party to a contract for providing services is entitled to fair compensation even if the amounts are not spelled out.” We think it reasonable, therefore, to raise with international partners the following issues:

– Official recognition of Ukraine’s strategic contribution to global security.

– Unconditional compliance with the Budapest Memorandum by all its parties, supplemented with a. detailed mechanism for implementing the guarantees

– Consideration of compensation and restitution mechanisms, including write-off of external debt and support for economic recovery

Today’s world leaders, who are increasingly dependent on giant national and transnational corporations, would do well to remember historical examples. A business approach to geopolitics, indecision, cowardice, selfishness, and short-sightedness only provokes aggressors. The world, especially today, is interconnected, and the era of isolationism, even for the United States, ended in the last century. Unfortunately, not everyone in the United States still recognizes and understands this.

It is now clear that Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 could have been prevented if the Kremlin had been convinced that it would meet prepared resistance from the Memorandum parties, and that the consequences of aggression would be unacceptable. To do this, the leaders of Ukraine and the West would have had to act together. And to have Churchill’s resolve. They had to be decisive, anticipate, and act proactively, as the Great British leader was able to do. He still warns us today: “It’s no use saying, ‘we’re doing our best.’ You have to succeed in doing what’s necessary!”

Ihor Smeshko

Col. Gen. Smeshko’s academic credentials include a PhD in Technical Sciences and System Analyses, and a Master’s of Law. After his first appointment as Ukraine’s Defense Attaché to the United States, he held a variety of top-tier academic and leadership positions in governmental national security, law enforcement, and technical science agencies and committees, including that of Chairman of Ukraine’s Joint Intelligence Committee, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine, Chairman of Ukraine’s Security Service, and Acting Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. Smeshko is the author of “Essays on the History of Ukraine.” He founded the “Center for Strategic Studies and Analysis,” and ran as the presidential candidate from the Conservative-Democratic “Strength and Honor” party.

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